Study
Automotive value creation 2030/2050
On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, we have carried out scenario-based forecasting to assess how structural change will affect value added and employment in the German automotive industry by 2030 and 2050.
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Background
The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs needed to determine how value added and employment in the German automotive industry would develop by 2030 and 2050 in the context of structural change – electrification, automation and new mobility concepts.
Our Approach
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1
Definition of several scenarios for structural change (electrification, automation, mobility concepts) up to 2050.
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2
Forecasts for sales, production, value added and employment for each scenario.
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3
Sensitivity analyses relating to trade restrictions and imports, and the identification of policy areas for action.
Result
Four scenarios up to 2050 have provided a detailed picture of the effects on an industry that accounts for 2.2 million jobs – and thus around 7 % of all jobs in Germany. By 2040, depending on the scenario, up to 300,000 jobs are at risk in both the automotive industry and the retail and aftermarket sectors, whilst the share of electric vehicles in new registrations will rise to 70–85 %. Supplemented by sensitivity analyses on trade restrictions and imports, it was possible to identify where value creation is lost and where policymakers can take action.