solutions
Policy Modelling & Simulation
Quantitative models can be used to reliably predict the future impact of a regulatory change, a price change or political intervention. That is why we develop bespoke models tailored to the specific issue at hand – ranging from scenario and sensitivity analyses to detailed ‘what-if’ simulations. Our Policy Modelling & Simulation Solution maps decisions and scenarios in transparent models and shows how they evolve over time and which key performance indicators they influence. This enables options to be compared, trade-offs to be assessed, courses of action to be systematically categorised and positions to be underpinned by concrete figures – for both strategic planning and external communication.
An overview of our services
Scenario modelling, forecasting, ‘what-if’ analysis, decision support
our reference projects
- Study
For the pharmaceutical sector, we have, for the first time, carried out a scenario analysis to comprehensively quantify the health and economic damage caused by the illegal trade in medicines in Germany.
Further reference projects
- Study
As part of the debate on reducing VAT on plant-based milk alternatives, we have modelled how the reform would affect consumption, tax revenue and the impact on the climate.
- Study
Using the photovoltaic market as an example, we have carried out a scenario-based analysis to examine the extent to which the regulatory approach of the last 20 years has shaped the expansion of the sector – and whether the climate targets can be achieved on the current trajectory.
- Report
As part of the debate on the planned EU drone regulation ‘U-Space’, we have quantified the economic costs and calculated the costs of a more cost-effective alternative.
- Report
On behalf of a company, we simulated how different measures of inflation would affect an index-linked tax over time – and drew a clear recommendation from this.
- Dashboard
We have developed a quantitative model for an insurance company that forecasts future claims trends and maps out various scenarios.
- Report
We have carried out a model-based assessment for a company to determine the costs that the state would incur as a result of implementing and enforcing a planned upper limit on a particular ingredient.
- Presentation
On behalf of a company, we have presented a government agency’s complex Markov model in a clear and accessible manner and assessed how robust the predicted market impacts actually are.
- Study
We have carried out a scenario-based analysis for businesses to examine how new mobility services, such as car-sharing and ride-pooling, are shifting employment and value creation.
- Study
On behalf of an international company, we have conducted an empirical study, suitable for publication, into how different excise duty structures affect government tax revenue.