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Forecasting claim levels to manage reserves and policies

We have developed a quantitative model for an insurance company that forecasts future claims trends and maps out various scenarios.

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Background

For insurers, it is essential to forecast future claims levels as accurately as possible, as this affects their reserves, liquidity and contracts. An insurance company wanted to improve its internal forecasting model in order to better assess claims trends.

Our Approach

  • 1

    Identification of the relevant influencing factors and their incorporation into a quantitative model.

  • 2

    Calculating various scenarios for the future level of damage.

  • 3

    Establishing a sound basis for planning provisions and drafting contracts.

Result

The result was a model that provides specific forecasts and scenarios and serves as a basis for decision-making. The company was able to plan its reserves more effectively, assess risks more accurately and structure contractual terms on the basis of data.

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