Study
Economic consequences of neonicotinoid restrictions for EU agriculture
Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we have identified and quantified the economic consequences of the EU restrictions on neonicotinoids for oilseed rape, potatoes and winter barley.
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Background
The EU has gradually restricted the use of neonicotinoids (in 2013 and 2018 respectively) in order to protect pollinators and ecosystems. It remained unclear what the actual economic impact of these restrictions was on European agriculture – and whether the environmental benefits would materialise at all on a global scale.
Our Approach
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1
Construction of a difference-in-differences model using the world market (excluding the EU) as the counterfactual comparison path.
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2
Monetisation of production shortfalls in rapeseed and potatoes at world market prices.
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3
Validation using winter barley as a largely unaffected control crop.
Result
The analysis reveals a clear, regulatory-driven divergence: whilst global rapeseed production (excluding the EU) increased by around 33 % between 2014 and 2023, EU production declined. By 2023, the EU was short of around 10 million tonnes of rapeseed and 6.2 million tonnes of potatoes compared to the global growth trajectory – a direct economic loss of over 5.9 billion euros for 2023 alone. Winter barley, which was hardly affected by the regulation, continued to follow the global trend (+39.7 %), thereby confirming the regulatory effect. At the same time, production shifted to regions with lower standards, meaning that the environmental benefits failed to materialise.