Study commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy: Employment development due to new mobility services
Employment in the mobility and transport services sector in Germany has risen continuously since 2011. In 2017, approx. 720,000 people were employed there subject to social insurance contributions. The mobility and transport services sector thus accounts for 2% of all jobs in Germany.
New mobility services in particular have contributed to the growth of mobility and transport. Two significant developments will form the basis of a large number of these new offers: Shared mobility is already an important component of offers such as car sharing, mobility-on-demand and ride pooling. These concepts are gaining popularity both in Germany and internationally. In addition, automated driving will fundamentally change not only these services in the coming years, but also traditional service providers such as public transport.
On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the IPE has prepared a study on employment effects through new mobility services among traditional and new providers of these services as well as in the automotive industry. Recommendations for economic policy action are derived from the analysis.
Methodological approach
The analysis of the direct employment effects in the mobility services sector ties in with the results of the main study "Automobile Value Creation 2030/2050". In this study, the turnover potential of new mobility services and the indirect employment effects on the automotive industry were already calculated. In addition, the main study considered employment effects due to structural change in the automotive industry, in the automotive trade and aftermarket as well as in interlinked sectors.
Considered are
- (1) direct employment effects, which include the employment potential of new mobility services over time (job creation).
- In addition, (2) the employment effects in the "traditional" mobility services sector are analysed, taking into account displacement mechanisms (job destruction).
- To put these in perspective, (3) indirect employment effects on the automotive industry (spillovers) are considered.
Based on the results of the turnover forecast of new mobility services, we calculate the value added for new and traditional mobility services in a first step. In a second step, the value added forecast is converted into employment. In this way, job effects from the introduction of new mobility services can be calculated.
The employment effects are considered on the basis of three scenarios that span along the development of new mobility concepts as well as the development of automated driving functions. Two of the scenarios were taken from the main study, the reference scenario and the 'increased automation' scenario. A counterfactual path was defined as the third scenario, in which the market development of new mobility concepts as well as that of automation is frozen at the current level.
The most important facts in a nutshell:
By 2030, between 80,000 and 130,000 additional jobs could be created in the mobility services sector.
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These will be added primarily by Mobility-on-Demand, but also by Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), car rental and car sharing, Level 4 taxis as well as in public transport (PT). At the same time, however, employment in the taxi industry will decline.
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These overall positive employment effects can partially offset the negative employment effects of structural change in the automotive industry. If the automotive industry is considered together with the mobility services sector, there will be a decline in employment of between 5 and 12% by 2030 compared to 2017.
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An important prerequisite for the creation of new jobs in the field of mobility services is corresponding action by policy-makers through the new and efficient design of the mobility system.
